THE IMPACT OF ELECTION ADMINISTRATION ON NIGERIAN DEMOCRACY;A STUDY OF THE STRUCTURE AND PROCESS OF NIGERIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (1999-2011)

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THE IMPACT OF ELECTION ADMINISTRATION ON NIGERIAN DEMOCRACY;A STUDY OF THE STRUCTURE AND PROCESS OF NIGERIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (1999-2011)

Abstract:

This study evaluates INEC’s conduct of Presidential elections in Nigeria from 1999-2011; with a view to determining the implications of the institutional context of INEC for the sustainability of democracy in the country. The study is conducted against the backdrop of the fact that all general elections conducted in Nigeria have generated controversy; supposedly arising from structural dependence and institutional inadequacies and deficiencies in the electoral administration system. The liberal theory of democracy is adopted as the theoretical framework of the study; specifically due to the fact that of all theories of democracy only the liberal version emphasizes a direct linkage between the quality of the election administration process and the qualification of a regime as democratic. The study identified four potential outcomes as assumptions of the study. First, is that a progressive increase in the quality of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Presidential elections would imply that INEC has sustained (stabilized) Nigeria’s democracy. Secondly, a continuous retrogression in the quality of the 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011 Presidential elections would imply that Nigeria’s democracy is diminishing. Thirdly, constancy in the quality of the of the four Presidential elections will imply that Nigeria’s democracy is static, and fourthly, a lack of any general trend as in assumption 1-3 will imply that Nigeria democracy is unstable. Questionnaires; were utilized as the main primary source of data. Focused Group Discussion and interviews of a sample of the major stakeholders in the election administration process as well as Documentary evidence were however used to supplement the data from the questionnaires. The data gathered were analyzed based on Elklit and Reynolds’s model for the analysis of electoral management bodies and election administration; which builds on a close scrutiny of the election administration system’s performance through clearly defined stages of the electoral process. Findings indicate that while from 1999, through 2003 to the 2007 Presidential elections, there was a progressive decline in the quality of the Presidential elections conducted by INEC with a total rating of 57.6%, 54.25% and 50.16% respectively; the 2011 Presidential elections had a much higher quality with an unprecedented rating of 69.65%. This lack of any general trend in the quality the Presidential elections conducted by INEC within the time frame of the study indicated that only the fourth assumption of the study is valid. Furthermore, a regression analysis of the four Presidential elections indicates that of all the functions performed by INEC, a total of seven functions significantly influenced the outcome of the elections. These are sufficiency of resources, complimentarity of voter education efforts by various groups, functionality of voter registration complaints procedures, acceptability of ballot paper design to parties and candidates, security of polling stations, promptness of vote count and promptness in the handling of election related disputes.

THE IMPACT OF ELECTION ADMINISTRATION ON NIGERIAN DEMOCRACY;A STUDY OF THE STRUCTURE AND PROCESS OF NIGERIA’S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS (1999-2011)

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