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SITE SELECTION OF ELECTORAL POLLING UNIT USING GEOSPATIAL TECHNOLOGY FOR ZARIA, KADUNA STATE NIGERIA
ABSTRACT
This study gives an insight to the site selection of electoral polling unit using geospatial technology for Zaria, Kaduna State Nigeria aimed at creating an appropriate model for citing polling units. For the purpose of this work, a base map, SRTM data, pollulation data and Landsat 8 satellite imagery were used to generate the land-use map of Zaria and to as well show the nature of the topography of the study area using ArcGIS 10.1, and IDRISI software. A seven parameters criterion was extracted from INEC objectives and summarized to polling unit proximity to voters, Road accessibility to INEC officials, Land use (public buildings, and open spaces), Clinic proximity, Slope and elevation, GMS masts and Water bodies. The generated thematic maps of these criteria were standardized using fuzzy logic approach. A weight for each criterion was generated by comparing them with each other according to their importance. With the help of these weights and criteria, final site suitability map was prepared. Analyzes of the data to determine a relative suitability for each goal was carried out and finally reclassifying preference into three categories of high, medium and low. Using geospatial techniques (multi-criteria evaluation) in IDRISI selva software, and ArcMap 10.1 to create map of existing polling units, suitability map, and comparision map are the results obtained. Comparison of existing and proposed polling units area was made with the aim of determining areas of similarity and areas of disparity. A final suitability map was created for locations of proposed polling units. It was shown how AHP and GIS can be used to create a suitability model of polling unit sites. The above result showed Zaria has an average of 894,600 square meters (894.600km2) in area and majority of the area at present been used as farmland. The population of registered voters is about 415432 with Sabon Gari LGA having 242276 and Zaria LGA having 173156. The result obtained from the map and validated shows that the suitability map of zaria produced has 0.09 consistency ratio and average of
36% of area not suitable, 56% of area fairly suitable and 8% Suitable (Most of the points which fall within this percentage). Thus, polling units that fell within the not suitable region can be redistributed or removed from the lists, also electoral polling units should not be cited in area that fall within not suitable area/constraints (rock/highland and water), while areas with high suitability are expected to have more polling units. Electoral polling units should not be cited in area that fall within not suitable area/constraints (rock/highland and water).
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TITLE …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… i
DECLARATION………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. iii
CERTIFICATION ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. iv
DEDICATION……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… iv
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ……………………………………………………………………………………………… v
LIST OF FIGURES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… ix
LIST OF TABLES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………… xiii
ABSTRACT …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. xi CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………………………………….. 1
1.1Background to the Study …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 1
1.2Statement of Problem …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 2
1.3Reasearch Question ……………………………………………………………………………………………………. 4
1.4Aim And Objectives …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
1.5 Scope and Limitations ………………………………………………………………………………………………… 5
1.6 Justification of Study …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 6
1.7 Study Area ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW ………………………………………………………………. 10
2.0Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 10
2.1 Theoretical Framework …………………………………………………………………………………………….. 10
2.1.1 The concept of election …………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10
2.1.2 Some election requirement definations …………………………………………………………………………… 12 2.2Elections In Nigeria …………………………………………………………………………………………………. 14
2.2.1 The Nigerian Electoral Process ………………………………………………………………………………………. 16
2.3 Review of Related Works …………………………………………………………………………………………. 17
2.3.1 Analytic Hierarchical Process on site selections ……………………………………………………………… 17
2.3.2 Geographical Information System on site selections ……………………………………………………….. 18
2.3.3 Related studies of integrating AHP and GIS on site selections ………………………………………… 20
2.4 Geographical Information System in the Electoral and Political Process ………………………… 21
2.4.1 The Geographical Information System concept and its uses ……………………………………………. 21
2.4.2 Geographical Information System for election planning and management …………………….. 22
- 3Geographical Information System for electoral boundary delimitation and redistricting ….. 24
2.4.4 Considerations for delineating voting areas …………………………………………………………………….. 29
2.4.5 Criteria for delimiting voting areas (Polling Units) ………………………………………………………… 30
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Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) …………………………………………………………………. 32
- Decision …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 33
- Decision rule ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 33
- Criterion …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 33
- Objective ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 34
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Multi- Criteria Decision Analysis in GIS ……………………………………………………………………. 34
- Criterion scores ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 36
- Criterion weights …………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 37
- Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) …………………………………………………………………………….. 40
- Suitability analysis (mapping) and Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision making…………………….. 44
- Multi-Criteria Analysis and GIS for suitability mapping …………………………………………………. 45
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY ……………………………………………………………………. 47
- Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 47
- Reconnaissance ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 48
- Data……… …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 49
- Equipment ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 49
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Pre-processing of Data ……………………………………………………………………………………………… 50
- Data format …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 50
- Standardization ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 51
- Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) …………………………………………………………………………………. 53
CHAPTER FOUR: RESULT AND DISCUSSION ……………………………………………………….. 65
- Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 65
- Distribution of existing Polling Units …………………………………………………………………………. 65
- Suitabilty Model ………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 67
- Discussion ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 67
4.3.1 Comparism of existing and proposed polling units for validation ………………………………… 69
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ……………. 71
5.1Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 71
5.1Summary ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 71
5.2Conclusion ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 71
5.3 Recommendation …………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 72
5.4Contribution to Knowledge ……………………………………………………………………………………….. 72
REFERENCES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 73
APPENDICES ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 79
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background To The Study
Over the years, the perceived increased level of corruption in Nigeria has procured enormous complaints and agitation for a better government and thus a general demand for credible elections in the country. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) an independent body charged with the responsibility of conducting and supervising elections in Nigeria has over the years modernized its information technology infrastructure from the outdated voting system of inaccurate paper records, and polling cards to the newer electronic system. (GIS Best practice, 2009).
The Independent National Electoral Commission also, before the 2015 general elections in Nigeria saw the necessity to reconfigure the structure of polling units in the country as well as create additional ones in other to improve upon the electoral process for free, fair, peaceful and credible elections in 2015 and beyond.
Polling units (PUs) is a place where a citizen can either register to vote or to vote. The essence of suitable polling units in an electoral process cannot be over emphasized so much that INEC has to create additional 30000 polling units before the 2015 elections. This decision of increasing the polling units faced a lot of criticism from certain interest before and after the election. The criticism was centred largely on an alleged conspiracy theory, that the Commission has done a disproportional distribution of the polling units across Nigeria under the new arrangement, which is aimed at foisting the dominance of one section of the country over the others for political advantage The Independent National Electoral Commission in its defence claims the decision was an exercise undertaken to ease the access of voters to their ballot boxes by: Decongesting overcrowded polling units and dispersing voters as evenly as possible among all the Pus, locating PUs more effectively within commuting distances of voters, given that movement is usually restricted on Election Day,
Relocating the PUs from “in-front of” private houses, and such other unsuitable places, to public buildings or where this is not possible, to public open spaces where tents can be provided; Locating the PUs inside classrooms or such other suitable enclosures, in line with International best practices; Splitting large PUs such that they have on average 500 registered voters; and creating additional PUs to cater for the splitting of large polling units as well as new settlements not serviced by any existing PU (INEC, 2014).
This study focuses on the suitability analyses of polling units in Nigeria as it meets with the above mentioned objectives in other to achieve free, fair, peaceful and credible elections using Zaria, Kaduna State as case study. It involves using Geographic Information System (GIS) for analyses by integrating the map of Zaria, Its Landuse map, its slope map, existing location of polling units to derive the Independent National Electoral Commission suitability criterion for appropriate analyses.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Availability of adequate and suitable polling units is an essential factor in ensuring a free, fair and credible election in any country. INEC‟s critical look into this factor has ensured a successful election in 2015. For the success of elections, and to discard the unwarranted criticism usually met by additional polling units and its distribution. It is necessary to analyse the suitability of the present polling units in the country.
The GIS-based approaches to land-use suitability mapping have their roots in the applications of hand-drawn overlay techniques used by American landscape architects in the late nineteenth and early 20th century (Collins et al., 2001). McHarg (1969) advanced the overlay techniques by proposing a procedure that involved mapping data on the natural and humanmade attributes of the environment of a study area, and then presenting this information on individual, transparent maps using light to dark shading (high suitability to low suitability) and superimposing the individual transparent maps over each other to construct the overall suitability maps for each land-use.
In a series of two articles, Malczewski and Ogryczak (1996) clearly defined the multiple criteria location problem. They also compared the advantages and the disadvantages of different Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) methods. Localization problems have also been treated with a more intensive use of GIS. Carver (1991) used GIS to evaluate various alternatives for nuclear waste sites. Then, he evaluates the effectiveness of three MultiCriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques used to compare scenarios in order to select the best one.
Onut and Soner (2007) used Analytical Heirarchy Process (AHP) to draw up hierarchy principles and calculate relative weight, then used Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) to fuzzify, and establish a site selection mode for solid waste transport station. Dey and Ramcharan (2007) used AHP to establish hierarchy framework of evaluation factors, and through expert questionnaires comparing each hierarchy and its relative weight could be used as reference for the site selection of quarry expansion decisions.
Tegou, Polatidis and Haralambopoulos (2007) used land suitability to evaluate wind farm siting, integrating MCDA and GIS, then AHP to calculate principle weight, and finally select a suitable site for wind farm. Furthermore, Senes and Toccolini (1998) combined UET (Ultimate Environmental Threshold) method with map overlays to evaluate land suitability for development. Hall et al. (1992) and Wang (1994) also used map overlays to define homogeneous zones, but then they apply classification techniques to assess the agricultural land suitability level of each zone. These classification techniques can be based on Boolean and fuzzy theory (Hall et al., 1992) or artificial neural networks (Wang, 1994).
The above literature all have one thing in common, their research goal is to build a site selection model, and use AHP to systemize the complicated problems of multi-principle, establish related factors and its calculated relative weight, and then integrate the spatial analysis function of GIS, overlay map layers of each related factors, screening and presenting the best suitable distribution areas of the research, and finally provide it to related agencies as reference for spatial decision making.
However, past studies often ignored the spatial analysis, and are in lack of related spatial selection model. Therefore, this study wishes to combine these two analysis tools, compensate for each other’s inadequacies, in order to make the results of this study more complete. Combining GIS and MCE is also a powerful approach to land suitability assessments. GIS enable computation of the criteria while a MCE can be used to group them into a suitability index. Following a similar approach, Eastman et al. (1993) produced a land suitability map for an industry near Kathmandu using IDRISI (a raster GIS) and AHP (Analytical Hierarchy Process) (Saaty, 1980).
1.3 Research Question
How efficient are the existing polling units in Zaria metropolis, taking into cognizance
INEC‟s criterion to achieve suitable polling units in other to improve electoral process in
Nigeria? These resulted to the following questions to be asked which include;
- Are there sufficient polling units in the study area?
- Where are the appropriate locations to site polling units?
- What is the relationship between the polling units and facilities such as public institutions, hospitals, open spaces, roads?
- Are there significance differences between the existing polling units and the proposed polling units (using a particular criteria e.g. population, distance and cordinate?
1.4 Aim and Objectives
The aim of this research is to use geospatial technique to create a suitability model for citing polling units in Zaria.
Simply stated, the objectives of this study are to:
- To collect location data from INEC and map the current location and distribution of existing polling units in Zaria.
- To create spatial analysis of polling units across the study area containing information on polling stations, villages, districts, health centres and mobile network showing connectivity and accessibility with road network.
- To generate a suitability model for citing of subsequent polling units in Zaria using
Multicriteria analysis.
- To compare existing and proposed polling units to determine areas of similarity and areas of disparity (validation).
1.5 Scope and Limitations
This research covers the determination of suitable locations for polling units within Zaria only, though it is pertinent that other local governments within Kaduna state and even other states of the federation should be considered as well. This can be in subsequent studies linked to this research. The study does not go outside the context of establishing polling units using geospatial technique within a GIS environment.
This work is based on a standard assessment and further detailed analysis for specific suitability which will be recommended based on International and INEC specifications. This involved the use of biophysical, socio-economic and environmental datasets or variables. Furthermore, the Multicriteria analysis carried out in this research made use of various data majorly from years preceding 2015. The research is carried out within a time frame of 12 month – from data collection, processing, analysis, to the final report submission.
The limitation of this project is based on the resolution of the imagery used which is Landsat 8 of year 2015. Landsat series data can provide long-term, high quality multi-band images for environmental monitoring and assessment at regional, national and global scales (Xu et al, 2009). Thus, if the correction of the errors such as radiometric and geometric distortion in the imagery for the classification of landuse map of Zaria is not properly removed then there is a tendency of error in the results to be produced. These errors cannot be completely removed.
1.6 Justification of the Study
The thrust of this study is to examine how GIS can be used to solve the problem of polling station location. GIS is not just magic box, as people assume it to be, but (simply) an extension of one‟s analytical thinking. It has no inherent answers, only those of the analyst, it is a tool, just like statistics is a tool, and it‟s a food for thought.
GIS will be a very useful tool for promoting free, fair and credible election as a means of ensuring that democracy and good governance prevails in states across Nigeria. All these can be achieved if the polling station as centres of vote collection is well located (or mapped).
Once the location of voting sites has been officially approved, map should be prepared showing the location of voting stations and relevant electoral districts and voting subdivision boundaries. To overcome such difficulty, GIS techniques come as a helping tool in order to generate such comprehensive maps and in a precise manner. This research seeks to achieve this goal. The timing of production of these maps is very important, it is one of the first actions that should be undertaken as soon as voting stations location are determined.
This research is justifiable in the sense that, it aim is to analyse appropriate locations for polling units within the study area because polling stations should be available to people within a community/ward in general without any form of influence (bias). Polling units are meant to satisfy the civic needs of the people. The proper location/accessibility of polling station, just like educational service, health service etc. is an essential feature of a welldeveloped political region, or any settlement and therefore should be sought after by politicians, community and opinion leaders. The irregular location of polling station in Nigeria has been a major obstacle for free, fair and credible election in Nigeria. Most polling stations located are usually influenced by individuals (well connected), high government officials, as well as traditional rulers. For instance, it has come to notice that during previous elections, polling stations were being located in some traditional rulers‟ palace.
Also, for the security of life and property after the whole exercise has been carried out. Since over the year there is usually destruction of life and properties. Legal implication to this effect is that the parties end up with various complains to different court which now determines the faith of the prosecutors. Logistic planning is an essential factor in every process to be carried out, this help to make proper decisions in the process of carrying out the election exercise. For instance, the provision of meal for the electorate officers, good siting condition against sun/rain, provision of election materials and transportation of the materials to the office for coalition e.t.c. Moreso, the supervision of the election by the relevant agencies such as Police, Army, Airforce, International election observers, Corp members, e. t.
- should be well cared for during and after the exercise.
This research will help to improve on the electoral process which will result to a free, fair and credible election within Zaria, Kaduna State Nigeria.
1.7 Study Area
The study area considered in this research is Zaria metropolis which lies within geographical coordinates of longitudes 7°36‟0” E to 7°46‟0” E and latitude 11°2‟0” N to 11°12‟0” N. It comprises two local government areas namely: Zaria and Sabongari LGA.
Zaria is a very large heterogeneous city whose approximate 1.1 million population (2006 Census) comes from different parts of the world. It is second size only to the State capital
Kaduna. Zaria is easily accessible from different parts of the country by air via Kaduna, Kano, and Abuja by rail and road via Kaduna, Jos, Kano and Sokoto. It is located on the high plains of Northern Nigeria; 652.6 meters above the sea level and some 950 km away from the coast. The Zaria region is characterized by gently rolling plains dotted with groups of rocky residual hills developed on granite bedrock.The land uses include agricultural, commercial, residential, institutional and open spaces. Zaria is also known for its educational growth. It is home to many federal and state institutions.
Generally, agricultural activities form the mainstay of the people’s economy in the study area and this engages directly or indirectly more than 70 percent of the population. The even climate, rich annual rainfall and availability of wide variety of mineral and agricultural resources all attest to the economic potential of the study area. The area is a major region of animal husbandry. Major food and cash crops produced includes, cotton, groundnut, guinea corn, millet, beans, rice, sugar cane and maize.
Zaria consists of an existing 24 voters Registration Areas (RA) and 601 Polling Units (PU) recognized by INEC as at the 2015 general elections. Below is a graphical representation of its location with respect to the map of Kaduna State.
Figure 1.1: Map of the area of study.
Source: (Modified after http://www.gadm.org) (2013).
SITE SELECTION OF ELECTORAL POLLING UNIT USING GEOSPATIAL TECHNOLOGY FOR ZARIA, KADUNA STATE NIGERIA
