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INTEGRATED HYDROLOGIC MODELING IN AN UNGAUGED EPHEMERAL WATERSHED: RIO SALADO, NEW MEXICO
ABSTRACT
The research will test the hypothesis that integrated models incorporating land surface, soil moisture, groundwater and stream flow processes forecast ungauged basin response. Every catchment/watershed/basin is under-gauged or completely ungauged for general applications in the fields of hydrology, ecology, and geochemistry. Gauges, as related to surface water, are essential for water resources assessment as they allow the estimation of water budgets, support estimation of erosion rates, and aid in calibrating/validating hydrological models for water resources management in general. This research constructs an integrated, multi-process model for estimating long-term stream flow in an ephemeral, ungauged semi-arid basin, the Rio Salado in central New Mexico. The basin drains 3,575 square kilometers and includes seasonal channel flow from summer thunderstorms. The basin is presently without a stream gauge, although stream flow records near the outlet to the Rio Grande are available from late 1947 to mid 1984. The focus of this research is to develop a strategy for supporting the physical model with an appropriate space-time data for geometry, physical parameters, and forcing for the model using available a priori data. The development of the hydrologic conceptual model is critical for constructing the model and verifying its plausibility of the a priori simulation. The conceptual model defines a list of rules that the simulation must follow, such as geometry, architecture, channel flow regimes, and water budgets. As part of this research, a geodatabase was developed to support the integrated model using an appropriate data model. It includes terrain, soil and hydrogeologic properties, historical time series of leaf area index, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, etc. The study has implemented MODHMS (developed by HydroGeologic Inc.), a physically-based and spatially-distributed model with variably saturated subsurface flow, overland flow, and channel flow. A priori data is found to sufficiently populate the conceptual model for this modeling study, even though significant knowledge gaps and data uncertainties are known to exist. Additional qualitative/quantitative data were obtained by the aid of remotely sensed images. ASTER day and night temperature and reflectance products were used to identify ephemeral and perennial stream reaches. The concept is based on apparent thermal inertia (ATI=1-albedo/temp day- temp night). Remote sensing improved the hydrogeologic conceptual model and it further suggests that groundwater from ephemeral reaches in the lower Rio Salado drains to the south beneath the watershed divide, and discharges to the Rio Grande at San Acacia. The last phase of the study used MODHMS to simulate 50-year scenarios of climate and land cover change on the water resources of the Rio Salado, as well as recovery from drought 2000 – 2007 also compared to ASTER. The results show climatic differences from the headwater to the outlet, as well and hydrologic response from soil parameter changes, as likely results from land cover change.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF FIGURES…………………………………………………………………………………………….. vii
LIST OF TABLES………………………………………………………………………………………………. xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS……………………………………………………………………………………. xii
CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………1
1.1 Overview………………………………………………………………………………… 1
1.2 Research Rationale……………………………………………………………………5
1.3 Research Strategy……………………………………………………………………..6
1.4 Dissertation Funding………………………………………………………………… 6
1.5 References………………………………………………………………………………. 8
CHAPTER 2: HYDROGEOLOGIC CONCEPTUAL MODEL…………………………….9
2.1 Model Development………………………………………………………………….9
2.2 References………………………………………………………………………………. 13
CHAPTER 3: GEODATABASE DEVELOPMENT……………………………………………23
3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….. 25
3.2 Materials and Methods………………………………………………………………29
3.3 Results and Discussion………………………………………………………………29
3.4 Summary………………………………………………………………………………… 32
3.5 References………………………………………………………………………………. 34
CHAPTER 4: TESTING THE VALUE OF A PRIORI DATA FOR A
PHYSICALLY-BASED INTEGRATED HYDROLOGIC MODEL IN AN
UNGAUGED BASIN: THE RIO SALADO, CENTRAL NEW MEXICO…. 36
4.1 Abstract………………………………………………………………………………….. 36
4.2 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….. 37
4.3 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………..42
4.3.1 Geodatabase Development…………………………………………………42
4.3.2 Overview of Data Availability…………………………………………….43
4.3.3 Hydrologic Conceptual Model Leading to the Physical Model.48
4.3.4 Integrated Hydrologic Model: MODHMS…………………………… 50 4.4 Results……………………………………………………………………………………. 55
4.5 Conclusions…………………………………………………………………………….. 59
4.6 References………………………………………………………………………………. 62
CHAPTER 5: IDENTIFYING EPHEMERAL AND PERENNIAL STREAM REACHES USING APPARENT THERMAL INERTIA FOR
INTEGRATED HYDROLOGIC MODELING OF AN UNGAUGED
BASIN: THE RIO SALADO, CENTRAL NEW MEXICO………………………. 76
5.1 Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………… 76
5.2 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….77
5.3 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………… 81
5.3.1 Apparent Thermal Inertia Calculations………………………………. 83 5.4 Results………………………………………………………………………………………85
5.5 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………….88
5.6 References…………………………………………………………………………………90
CHAPTER 6: SENSITIVITY OF CLIMATE AND LAND COVER CHANGES
ON PERENNIAL REACHES USING AN INTEGRATED HYDROLOGIC
MODEL: THE RIO SALADO, CENTRAL NEW MEXICO……………………..100
6.1 Abstract…………………………………………………………………………………….100
6.2 Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….101
6.2.1 Climate Variation Scenarios……………………………………………… 102
6.2.2 Land Cover Change…………………………………………………………..103
6.3 Methods…………………………………………………………………………………… 105
6.3.1 Model Sensitivity.…………………………………………………………….. 106
6.3.2 Singular spectrum analysis……………………………………………….. 108
6.3.3 Integrated Hydrologic Model: MODHMS…………………………… 111
6.3.4 Apparent Thermal Inertia…………………………………………………..115
6.4 Results………………………………………………………………………………………118
6.4.1 Climate Variation Scenario………………………………………………..118
6.4.2 Land Cover Change…………………………………………………………..119
6.5 Conclusions……………………………………………………………………………….122
6.6 References…………………………………………………………………………………124
CHAPTER 7: CONCLUSIONS……………………………………………………………………….. 132
7.1 Future Research Needs………………………………………………………………. 134
APPENDIX A: SUPPLEMENTAL FIGURES TO CHAPTER 5…………………………. 136
APPENDIX B: A Finite Volume Sensor Array for Estimating Evaporation – Transpiration – Recharge from Soil Moisture and Groundwater Levels: Rio
Grande Basin, NM……………………………………………………………………………….. 146
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 OVERVIEW
In 2001, New Mexico’s demand for water exceeded supply by approximately
55,000 acre-feet per year (afpy) (Gould, 2002). An accurate water budget for the Middle Rio Grande is critical for urban and agricultural uses. The Rio Salado, now ungauged, typically contributes over 10,000 afpy and has been recorded to over 80,000 afpy in 1972. But since the gauge was abandoned in 1984, the contributions of the Rio Salado have not been accounted for, and when it was gauged, the gauge was dry almost 90% of the time, missing nearly 16,000 afpy. The Rio Salado, the southern-most significant tributary to the Rio Grande, drains 3,575 square kilometers in the southern Middle Rio
Grande region, and its maximum flows are sometimes in years when the rest of the Rio Grande is in deficit—1965 most notably (Heath, 1983). Estimating long-term and current stream flow into the Rio Grande is an important step toward quantifying water quantity and availability. The Action Committee of the Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly has compiled yearly water budgets with the gauges available (Table 1.1), but absent is the contribution of the Rio Salado, which could potentially exceed the Rio Puerco which is at 25,000 afpy.
The challenge of this research is to reconstruct the historical runoff record and groundwater subflow in the Rio Salado/Rio Grande and to provide an appraisal of the value of a priori data and the hydrogeologic conceptual model to this reconstruction by addressing three issues in water resources engineering (Table 1.2): 1) Runoff in ephemeral channels involves the interaction between surface and subsurface exchange in a geologically complex mountain-front system. The hypothesis of this research is that fully-coupled models reasonably represent the appropriate physical processes occurring within an ephemeral watershed/basin and provide important new predictions unavailable to water managers from traditional non-physically-based approaches. 2) Integrated hydrological models have comprehensive data requirements (i.e. for space, time, and process) and require special organized data architecture. A data model has the appropriate catalogs (i.e. feature data sets, raster catalogs) for storage, manipulation, and dissemination of spatial and temporal data, along with the topological rules for developing the hydrogeologic conceptual model. The conceptual model forms the basis for initial decisions of the structure and parameter fields of the hydrologic model. 3) The integrated model requires parameterization to determine the partitioning of land surface and subsurface fluxes (i.e. resolve the relative magnitude of evapotranspiration (ET) and recharge). Finally, remote sensing serves to identify important land surface and shallow groundwater fluxes that complement the national digital data resources.
These three issues prompt several science questions: What is the value of modeling to improving surface and groundwater forecasts in ungauged or poorly gauged semi-arid watersheds? What are the essential data required to support integrated models, and what is the role/value of a priori data sets? Are a priori data sufficient to develop the Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model? Can remote sensing be used to detect perennial and ephemeral channel reaches and the locations of groundwater gains and losses?
| Table 1.1- Water budget of the Middle Rio Grande showing the Rio Salado as ungauged with typical flows from 10,000 to 80,000 afpy unaccounted for (modified from Action Committee of the Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly, 1999) |
| Table 1.2 – This research addresses three issues, hypotheses, and science questions with the hope of providing a strategy for constructing an integrated, multi-process model for estimating long-term stream flow and groundwater conditions in an ephemeral, ungauged basin. | ||||||||||||||||||
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1.2 RESEARCH RATIONALE
Currently, there are many groups that focus on water, environmental management, and energy circulation at basin and planetary scales: International
Association for Hydrological Sciences (IAHS); UNESCO International Hydrology
Programme (IHP); Hydrology for Environment, Life and Policy (IHP-HELP); Flow
Regimes from Experimental and Network Data (IHP-FRIEND); WMO World
Hydrological Observing System (WHYCOS); World Water Assessment Programme
(WWAP); Global Energy Water Experiment (GEWEX); Coordinated Enhancing
Observing Period (CEOP); and Consortium of Universities for Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Incorporated (CUAHSI). Perhaps the most relevant to this research is the Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), an initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) aimed at achieving major advances in the capacity of the hydrologic sciences to make reliable predictions in ungauged basins
(Sivapalan, et al., 2003).
The PUB science program objectives are the following:
- Advance the ability of hydrologists worldwide to predict the fluxes of water and associated constituents from ungauged basins, along with estimates of the uncertainty of predictions;
- Advance the knowledge and understanding of climatic and landscape controls on hydrologic processes occurring at all scales, in order to constrain the uncertainty in hydrologic predictions;
- Demonstrate the value of data for hydrologic predictions and provide a rational basis for future data acquisitions, including alternative data sources, by quantifying the links between data and predictive uncertainty;
- Advance the scientific foundations of hydrology and provide a scientific basis for sustainable river basin management; and
- Actively promote capacity building activities in the development of appropriate scientific knowledge and technology to areas and communities where it is needed.
1.3 RESEARCH STRATEGY
This dissertation has six main chapters: an introductory overview, four research themes that are to be submitted for publication, and a summary of the body of work. The appendix includes additional figures from the chapters and a brief discussion of fieldwork done for this thesis which has not been included in the body but was essential to the completion of the effort.
Chapter 2: The first paper discusses the hydrogeologic conceptual model, both the basis and construction.
Chapter 3: The second paper develops the geodatabase for collecting and managing geospatial data as well as using literature to supply hydrologic parameters needed for the integrated hydrologic model.
Chapter 4: The third paper examines the value of integrated hydrologic models for estimating historic stream flow rates using a priori data for parameterization solely. Chapter 5: The fourth paper uses remote sensing to help fill knowledge gaps common in ungauged basins. Here perennial and ephemeral channels are identified with apparent thermal inertia and serve as confirmatory to the hydrologic conceptual model. Chapter 6: The fifth paper studies the transition of ephemeral and perennial stream reaches following a period of drought using satellite imagery to calibrate the integrated hydrologic model and to examine the sensitivity of the integrated model to climate variation, and land cover change.
1.4 DISSERTATION FUNDING
This research is funded by NASA and the National Science Foundation (NSF)
Center for Sustainability of Semi-Arid Hydrology in Riparian Areas (SAHRA) aimed at an integrated, multidisciplinary understanding of hydrologic science as it pertains to water resources in semi-arid regions. This is done through five thrusts: 1) Spatial and
Temporal Components of the Water Balance, 2) Basin-Scale Water and Solute Balances,
3) Functioning of Riparian Systems, 4) Multi-Resolution Integrated Modeling of BasinScale Processes, 5) Water as a Resource: Competition, Conflict, Planning, and Policy.
1.5 REFERENCES
Action Committee of the Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly (1999). Middle Rio Grande Water Budget: Where Water Comes From, & Goes, & How Much – Averages for 1972-1997. Middle Rio Grande Water Assembly, October 1999.
Gould, J. (2002). Middle Rio Grande Basin Surface Water Budget for Calendar Years
1935, 1955, 1975, and 1993. Bureau of Reclamation Albuquerque Area Office,
Middle Rio Grande Water Assessment Supporting Document No. 15, 1995. New
Mexico Office of the State Engineer and the Interstate Stream Commission (OSE/ISC). Framework for Public Input to a State Water Plan. Santa Fe, New Mexico, December 2002.
Heath, D.L. (1983). Flood and recharge relationships of the lower Rio Puerco, New Mexico: New Mexico Geological Society Guidebook, 34th Field Conference, Socorro Region II, 329-337.
Panday, S. and P. S. Huyakorn (2004). A Fully Coupled Physically-Based SpatiallyDistributed Model for Evaluating Surface/Subsurface Flow. Advances in Water Resources. 27, 361-382.
Sivapalan, M., Takeuchi, K., Franks, S. W., Gupta, V. K., McDonnell, J. J., Mendiondo, E. M., O’Connell, P. E., Oki, T., Pomeroy, J. W., Schertzer, D., Uhlenbrook, S. and E. Zehe (2003). IAHS Decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB), 2003-2012: Shaping an Exciting Future for the Hydrological Sciences. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 48:6, pp 867-880.
Tarboton, D. G. (1997). A New Method for the Determination of Flow Directions and
Contributing Areas in Grid Digital Elevation Models. Water Resources Research,
33(2): 309-319. http://www.engineering.usu.edu/dtarb
INTEGRATED HYDROLOGIC MODELING IN AN UNGAUGED EPHEMERAL WATERSHED: RIO SALADO, NEW MEXICO
